Adaptive management of the climate change problem: bridging the gap between research and public policy

There are important differences between adaptation to normal climate and adaptation to climate change. One scientific community is organized to address extreme probabilities in current distributions, and their disaster potential. Another scientific community addresses the longer-term changes in the climate system. There are important differences between natural hazard (extreme and unpredictable events) and disaster as natural hazard with disastrous economic and social consequences as a matter of enormous concern. Finally, disaster management means a forecast for the real disaster events and after these disasters occurred, a post disaster attitude is necessary to ameliorate the situation and to take measures for rapid recovery. In this paper the author tries to address the description, understanding and prediction of extreme events in the weather system and their impact across a range of natural and socio-economic phenomena. Other goals of the paper are to present the weather and climate characteristics, the statistics of extreme events and to evaluate their impact on economy. Thus one major task of the work is to address the management of natural disasters caused by weather: the management of event forecast, risk assessment for various regions, and disaster management after the event occur. At the intersection between Economics, Management and Science of Weather Processes, this interdisciplinary study will provide the reader with insight and tools to address contemporary climate and weather hazard management problems.weather disasters, natural hazard, human vulnerability, extreme events, statistics and impact, management of event forecast, regional risk assessment, post disaster management

The setting of market economy in Romania - statistical arguments

Concerning the period 1990-2004, one can formulate a hypothesis of economic and national industrial cyclical phenomenon of “Juglar” type, with two visible evolution periods, the former of expansion and the latter of recession, and between them, less evident, the crisis and the downward. The Romanian economy crossed two “Juglar” cycles over three electoral periods that succeeded already to outline the elements of electoral cyclical type.cyclical phenomenon, Juglar cycle, market economy, electoral cycle, economic growth

The scientific way of thinking in statistics, statistical physics and quantum mechanics

This paper focuses on the way of thinking in both classical and modern Physics and Statistics, Statistical Mechanics or Statistical Physics and Quantum Mechanics. These different statistical ways of thinking and their specific methods have generated new fields for new activities and new scientific disciplines, like Econophysics (between Economics and Physics), Sociophysics (between Sociology and Physics), Mediaphysics (between all media and comunication sciences), etc. After describing some recent definitions of statistical thinking, implications of statistical education for developing Econophysics, Sociophysics, Mediaphysics, etc. from Statistical and Quantum Mechanics are discussed. Several opinions are given as a direct liaison between the classical and modern statistical sciences and thoughts of a scientific research in general. The main conclusion is that Statistics developing habits of mind for Statistical Physics in Econophysics, for the Quantum Mechanics in Quantum Physics, for the Sociology in Sociophysics will be essential for the future of all.Statistics, Statistical Physics, Quantum Mechanics, Econophysics, Sociophysics

GDP – AN INDICATOR FOR STATISTICAL COMPARISONS AT NATIONAL / REGIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL LEVEL

All European Union countries have gradually adopted and harmonized their statistics to meet the directives of the European System of Accounts (ESA), whose 1995 version replaced the 1979 version, thus providing the necessary methodological comparability of regional indicators for regional Community rankings. ESA is the same as National Accounts Statistics (NAS), as a type of complex algorithm of accounting, statistics and macroeconomic analysis, being used as a tool for defining economic outcomes and also as a major decisionmaking target in the economic syntheses of market economy countries, in UN statistics, as well as those of other international bodies

A generalized exploratory method for managerial analysis and business communication

Contemporary managerial processes are focused on communication and negotiation, where efficiency acquires an essential importance and its variation related to the managerial programme, with its time or space details, respectively related to the effectiveness of management, statistics, mathematics, etc. All these sciences and their methods meant to identify regularities and to generalize the alternatives, emphasizing their fundamental contribution to the majority of the results of the organizations, regions and national economies. This paper illustrates cybernetic communication’s theories based on information (with special stress being laid on the notions of data, language, message and decoding/encoding), and also underlines the functions and models of communication, the kind of form, and expression relationship human communication intends to achieve, the types of information with relation to communication, knowledge and creation, semantic, statistical and mathematical aspects woven into communication, the levels of theoretical approach of communication (with respect to the accuracy of symbol transmission, the accuracy of signification conveyed through symbols, and the efficacy of its influence on the recipient). The latter analysis (belonging to Warren Weaver) is specifically dwelt on, with special emphasis on the managerial activities. Initially the author proposes six solutions of using some methods of analysis, out of which one is strictly logical, then four distinct methods mainly statistical and mathematical in nature, and, in the end, one that is mainly sociological (the method of the flattened networks of internet type). The methods briefly presented easily characterize the communication, negotiation, and, finally, the decision-making processes, but especially their aggregation in an ample process, the managerial one. The frame method of the four “E” becomes the expression of the statistical way of thinking through effects and efforts of the economic activities, but it does not exclusively belong to them, it initiates a chain of efficaciousness-degree of economy-efficiency-effectiveness type, a chain that allows the interpretation, the placement in hierarchical order and the comparison of the processes and systems, whereas mathematics through the richness of the solutions, from using the probabilities of occurrence of the effects, to the informational energy, complete and generalize the entirety. Thus, there results a new economic paradigm of Homo Effectus, able to substitute the already contested Homo Rationalis.information, language, communication, message, decoding /encoding, negotiation, the method of the four “E”, efficaciousness, degree of economy, efficiency and effectiveness

The preponderance of decision in a new managerial function of information – decision

The decision preponderate over information in a new central function of management defined as informationdecision; we believe that the option for a compromise of the type: prognosis of product or service, organization, information-decision, stimulation and control better responds to the new managerial conditions. There frequently occur deadlocks in modelling decisions, especially owing to the lack of information (quality of the data, equations, the degre of accuracy etc.), but we believe that the option for a better decision, sometimes even instead of a better information, finally, means an optimal solution to short term.managerial information and decision, mathematical hope, prudence, moderate, superoptimistic, equilibrium and regrets rule, decision trees

Economic indicators used for EU projects, in other criteria of aggregation than national / regional

Economical and social indicators are created and published for national and regional dimensions. Nowadays, both local and territorial indicators are really able to define more adequate the stage of social and economical development and to illustrate the impact of European programs and projects in fields like: long lasting development, entrepreneurial development, scientific research development and strategies, education and learning resources, IT resources, dissemination of European culture etc. If in the first part, there is only quantitative information, offered by our National Institute of Statistics (NIS), in the following few examples of some useful economical and social indicators provide a dynamic vision in defining objectives, methods and implementation Thus the need for a quantitative framework of local and territorial indicators demands for an original statistical methodology.gross domestic product, indicators in macro, mezo and micro economics, weight of selected, factors, representative methodology

Some Relevant Econophysics’ Moments of History, Definitions, Methods, Models and New Trends

New models result from a new way of thinking or from the trans-disciplinary methods used in new domains. Econophysics improve the quality of the classical research of Economics through its original models and methods. As a new or very young science Econophysics means either a new domain for physicists or new methods and ways of thinking for economists in the modern world. Physicists have recently established careers in the banking, financial, life insurance and marketing more easily than we could imagine only because their appetite for data and new laws of economic realities. After a brief historical background of the last three decades, a new section is defining what Econophysics is, and others underline significant methods, models, results, and trends. A final remark is inspired by the needs of globalize economies.Econophysics, Statistical Physics, Econophysics model, Quantum Statistics, power law, diffusion.

MANAGERIAL DECISION IN INNOVATIVE EDUCATION SYSTEMS STATISTICAL SURVEY BASED ON SAMPLE THEORY

Before formulating the statistical hypotheses and the econometrictesting itself, a breakdown of some of the technical issues is required, which are related to managerial decision in innovative educational systems, the educational managerial phenomenon tested through statistical and mathematical methods, respectively the significant difference in perceiving the current qualities, knowledge, experience, behaviour and desirable health, obtained through a questionnaire applied to a stratified population at the end,in the educational environment, either with educational activities, or with simultaneously managerial and educational activities. The details having to do with research focused on the survey theory, turning into a working tool the questionnaires and statistical data that are processed from those questionnaires, are summarized below

Romania Foreign Trade in Global Recession, Revealed by the Extended Method of Exchange Rate Indicators

In this article the authors propose an extended method for assessing foreign trade, which is capitalized on in the analysis of foreign trade/external marketing, under the influence of two of the most difficult recession of the Romanian economy, placed in the last interwar decade and in the first decade of the new millennium. The selection of the periods for the analysis, despite and beyond the methodological shortcomings concerning the provision of statistical comparability, which is relatively overcome by the advantages of the method, was dictated by the regulator impact of the major recessions in Romanian foreign trade, which offers the possibility to identify a national profile of economic behaviour. The structure of the article includes, after an introductory reference to approaching external marketing in the main economic theories, the first section dealing with the repertoire of foreign trade theories, with main emphasis on the specific contemporary issues and trends, but also a section for detailing the extended method proposed and the original statistical tools that are proposed (from the spread of the mobile rates of the contrary flows, to the indices and coefficients of the Hirschman and Gini-Struck type in curve ABC), and of the databases. Once applied in the results section, the extended method manages to quantify the broad outline of a reactive profile, slightly lagging and inertial, of the external marketing / foreign trade of the national economy, in relation to crisis or recession in both time analyses, which is relatively stable for eight decades, providing space for comments that allow greater macro-economic self-awareness. The main final remark shows that a small starting gap, apparently favourable, of Romanian foreign trade, in response to crisis or recession type phenomena, cannot however compensate the inertial trend of these cyclic phenomena, which is slightly longer than one year, and whose negative impact is strongly felt and amplified.method of exchange indicators, foreign/international trade, mercantilism, spread of mobile rates, Hirschman and Gini-Struck indices and coefficients in ABC curve